Analysts fear RP is doomed to instability<\/p>\n
By Terry Friel<\/p>\n
MANILA (Reuters): A wave of nationalism over an assault on
\nMuslim separatists may lift Philippine President Joseph Estrada's
\nflagging fortunes, but his country is doomed to years of
\ninstability unless he makes headway against a raft of other woes.<\/p>\n
Two years ago, the Philippines appeared to have survived the
\nAsian economic meltdown better than most of its neighbors. Along
\nwith Singapore, it was the only nation to avoid negative growth
\nin 1998.<\/p>\n
But analysts say the country has fallen off international
\ninvestors' radar screens, its currency and stock market is in
\ntrouble and its economy running out of steam as others recover.<\/p>\n
Estrada, who has four years of his term to run, is dogged by
\nperceptions of dithering leadership, allegations of cronyism and
\ncorruption in government, a wave of bombings in the capital and
\nhis failure to make progress on freeing 21 mostly foreign
\nhostages held by Muslim separatists.<\/p>\n
\"Investors are still very nervous about what's happening in
\nthe Philippines and have lost quite a bit of confidence in the
\nEstrada administration,\" said Li Lian Ong, regional economist
\nwith Macquarie Bank in Hong Kong.<\/p>\n
\"The slowness of the economic reforms... the hostage situation
\ndown south is seen to be symptomatic of perhaps the loss of
\ncontrol over the country.\"<\/p>\n
At home, a full-scale offensive against the Moro Islamic
\nLiberation Front (MILF), the main guerrilla force fighting for an
\nindependent Muslim state in the south of this mainly Catholic
\ncountry, may boost his fortunes, said political columnist Nelson
\nNavarro.<\/p>\n
Although the fighting has hit agricultural production, it has
\nalso triggered a surge in nationalism among most Filipinos.<\/p>\n
Newspapers and television daily highlight visits by movie
\nstars and singers to wounded soldiers and many newspapers are
\nrunning special funds to help the casualties.<\/p>\n
\"People have really rallied around the flag,\" Navarro told
\nReuters.<\/p>\n
\"If he can turn this around and end it (the insurgency), it
\nwill be a really big point. But if he doesn't it's going to turn
\ninto a quicksand to suck away resources and energy.<\/p>\n
\"It could do him in.\"<\/p>\n
Congressional elections for the Senate and House of
\nRepresentatives are due in May next year when the opposition
\nhopes to wrest control of both houses, making Estrada's rule more
\ndifficult.<\/p>\n
While the once popular former action film hero grapples with
\nthe Muslim insurgency and the hostage crisis, the latest official
\ndata shows the economy is running out of puff.<\/p>\n
The economy grew 3.4 percent year-on-year in the first
\nquarter, down from 4.9 percent in the last quarter of 1999.<\/p>\n
The government remains confident it can achieve the bottom end
\nof its 4-5 percent range in 2000, but many economists are looking
\nto 3-3.5 percent instead.<\/p>\n
Investor concerns have also hit the peso and stock market
\nhard. After a poor performance in 1999, the stock index has
\nfallen a further 27 percent so far this year.<\/p>\n
\"The government really needs to assert some authority,\" said
\nNavarro. \"The situation requires statesmanship and political
\nfootwork that he (Estrada) evidently doesn't have.\"<\/p>\n
With virtually no way of legally forcing Estrada from office,
\nanalysts fear the country is doomed to political and economic
\ninstability if he does not improve.<\/p>\n
\"I think you will see basically the Philippines fall further
\nand further behind its regional neighbors,\" said Ong.<\/p>\n
\"Basically you need to have political stability in order to
\npush the economy ahead. But then you are never going to achieve
\npolitical stability if your economy doesn't recover.<\/p>\n
\"Unless you can feed the people, there's always going to be
\nsocial unrest, dissatisfaction.\"<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/analysts-fear-rp-is-doomed-to-instability-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}