JAKARTA \u2013 The increase in the price of Pertamax to Rp16,250 per litre\nstarting 10 June 2026 has not only sparked debate over public purchasing\npower and the state\u2019s fiscal health. Behind this policy lies another\nrisk that is beginning to concern economists: the potential shift in\nconsumption from Pertamax to Pertalite, which could increase the\ngovernment\u2019s energy subsidy and compensation burden.<\/p>\n
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) assesses that the\nwidening price gap between Pertamax and Pertalite could alter national\nfuel consumption patterns. With Pertalite\u2019s price remaining at Rp10,000\nper litre, there is a price difference of Rp6,250 per litre with\nPertamax.<\/p>\n
CELIOS Director of Public Policy Media Wahyudi Askar stated that the\npublic is now faced with two choices: continue buying Pertamax at a\nhigher price or switch to Pertalite. \u201cWhen the margin increase is too\nlarge, the options are to pay more or downgrade to Pertalite.\nDowngrading to Pertalite also means increasing the number of Pertalite\nusers who have been receiving subsidies from the government,\u201d said\nMedia.<\/p>\n
CELIOS Director of Economics Nailul Huda assessed that this risk\ncannot be taken lightly. According to him, the increase in Pertamax\nprices without a corresponding adjustment to Pertalite prices will drive\nincreased demand for the fuel assigned by the government. \u201cWhen the\ngovernment decides to raise the price of Pertamax without raising the\nprice of Pertalite, there is a consequence of increased demand for\nPertalite. As a result, the Pertalite quota will increase and cause fuel\nsubsidies to swell as well,\u201d Huda stated.<\/p>\n
National fuel consumption data shows that Pertalite remains the\nbackbone of national petrol consumption. Based on data from the\nDownstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency (BPH Migas), the quota for\nSpecial Assignment Fuel Types (JBKP) or Pertalite has been in the range\nof 29-32 million kilolitres per year over the last five years.\nMeanwhile, national Pertamax consumption is estimated to be in the range\nof 10-12 million kilolitres per year. This means that Pertalite\nconsumption is almost three times greater than Pertamax.<\/p>\n
In terms of national petrol market share, Pertalite is estimated to\ncontrol around 70-75 percent of national petrol consumption, while\nPertamax and similar products are in the range of 25-30 percent. The\nlarge base of Pertalite users means that even a small-scale change in\nconsumption can have a significant impact on the country\u2019s energy\nbudget. As an illustration, if only 10 percent of Pertamax users switch\nto Pertalite, the additional Pertalite consumption could reach around 1\nmillion to 1.2 million kilolitres per year. This additional volume could\nincrease the government\u2019s energy compensation needs.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the government faces increasing fiscal pressure\ndue to the high cost of keeping energy prices affordable. In the 2026\nDraft State Budget (RAPBN), the government allocated energy subsidies of\nRp210.1 trillion, an increase compared to the 2025 outlook of Rp183.9\ntrillion and the 2024 realisation of Rp177.6 trillion. Meanwhile, Our\nState Budget (APBN Kita) data shows that as of May 2026, the realisation\nof energy subsidies and compensations had reached Rp203.7 trillion. Of\nthat amount, energy compensation reached Rp108.9 trillion, larger than\nthe energy subsidy of Rp94.8 trillion. The magnitude of this figure\nshows that the government is finding it increasingly difficult to\nmaintain energy prices far below the economic price when world oil\nprices and the rupiah exchange rate are under pressure.<\/p>\n
A study by the Indonesian Forum for Budget Transparency (Fitra)\nestimated that the economic price of Pertamax in May 2026 was already\nabove Rp17,000 per litre. Meanwhile, the selling price before adjustment\nwas still at Rp12,300 per litre. This means there is a difference of\naround Rp4,700 to Rp5,000 per litre between the selling price and the\neconomic price. With national Pertamax consumption of around 10-12\nmillion kilolitres per year, this difference could create an economic\nburden of up to Rp47 trillion to Rp60 trillion per year if it all had to\nbe borne through the compensation mechanism. This condition explains why\nthe government and Pertamina ultimately chose to adjust the price of\nPertamax.<\/p>\n
However, adjusting the price of Pertamax does not automatically solve\nthe problem. If Pertamax prices are kept suppressed, the energy\ncompensation burden will continue to swell. But when the price of\nPertamax is increased closer to the economic price, the risk of\nconsumers shifting to Pertalite emerges, which in turn can also increase\nthe subsidy and energy compensation burden. Therefore, the government\u2019s\nchallenge going forward is not only maintaining the health of the state\nbudget but also ensuring that the distribution of Pertalite remains\nwell-targeted. Without strict supervision, the increase in Pertamax\nprices could trigger a consumption migration that creates new fiscal\npressure. With Pertalite consumption reaching about 31 million\nkilolitres per year, or almost three times greater than Pertamax, a\nslight shift in consumption can have a major impact on the state energy\nbudget. This is the dilemma the government now faces: keeping energy\nprices affordable while ensuring the state budget remains healthy and\nsustainable.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/alert-on-shifting-to-pertalite-a-comparison-of-pertamax-vs-pertalite-consumption-1781085768", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }