ADB sharply upgrades Asian growth projections<\/p>\n
MANILA (AFP): The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sharply
\nupgraded this year's regional economic growth forecasts to 5.7
\npercent Tuesday on the back of a \"far better than expected\"
\nrebound from crisis.<\/p>\n
The Manila-based bank boosted the original projection of 3.8
\npercent owing to strong recovery by the humbled economic tigers
\nof South Korea and Southeast Asia and robust growth in China.<\/p>\n
Bank research papers presented at a workshop here also saw
\nJapan \"beginning to emerge from the recession\" and detected
\nsustained growth in South Asia.<\/p>\n
\"The 1999 performance appears to be the beginning of a
\ncyclical upswing as prospects for 2000 also appear strong --
\nsupported by a higher rate of growth of world GDP (gross domestic
\nproduct) and trade,\" the ADB said in a report released four days
\nahead of a summit by Southeast Asian leaders here.<\/p>\n
The bank said the Asian economy would also grow by 5.7 percent
\nin 2000.<\/p>\n
However, the ADB warned the region, which grew by 2.3 percent
\nin 1998, against slackening in reform efforts \"if growth momentum
\nis to be maintained and social costs of any future downturns are
\nto be minimized.\"<\/p>\n
Downside risks for this year's recovery are \"now minimal\" with
\nthe stability of the U.S. and Japanese economies, the peaceful
\npolitical transition in Indonesia and projected higher
\nconsumption in the three months to December.<\/p>\n
However, \"prospects for 2000 depend crucially on
\nsustainability of domestic demand not only through growth in
\nconsumption but also an upturn in investment demand,\" it added.<\/p>\n
South Korea leads the recovery among the most severely
\naffected countries with 1999 growth forecast at a stunning nine
\npercent from negative 5.8 percent in 1998. Growth is projected to
\nslow down to 6.5 percent in 2000, the ADB said.<\/p>\n
It acknowledged that the crisis had prompted the bank to take
\na \"sober\" view of the region's economic prospects.
\nBut \"events in 1999 have turned out to be far better than
\nexpected,\" it said.<\/p>\n
China's economy is forecast to decelerate to 7.2 percent this
\nyear from 7.8 percent in 1998 as stimulus from a fiscal package
\nlaunched last year tapers off and export growth slows down, the
\nbank said. China's GDP is projected to further slow to 6.5
\npercent in 2000.<\/p>\n
\"Overall, (China's) 1999 export growth is projected to remain
\nsluggish at three percent. Improvements in industrial production
\ndue to falling inventories and export recovery, retail sales and
\nexport growth has helped boost import growth which is expected to
\nbe 18 percent in 1999,\" the ADB said.<\/p>\n
Asia's newly-industrialized economies -- Hong Kong, South
\nKorea, Singapore and Taiwan -- are expected to grow at an average
\n5.7 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2000 from negative 1.6
\npercent in 1998.<\/p>\n
Consumers in these economies \"are starting to spend after two
\nyears of belt-tightening,\" the ADB noted.<\/p>\n
Hong Kong's economy is expected to expand by 0.7 percent this
\nyear, rising to 1.5 percent in 2000 from negative 5.1 percent in
\n1998.<\/p>\n
Singapore is to post 5.0 percent growth this year, climbing to
\n6.0 percent in 2000 from negative 1.5 percent in 1998.<\/p>\n
Southeast Asia, where Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and
\nThailand were among the hardest hit by the turmoil, is to expand
\nby an average 3.0 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2000 from
\nnegative 7.5 percent in 1998.<\/p>\n
Indonesia, which recently held democratic elections but is
\nwracked by threats of separatism, is to grow by 2.0 percent this
\nyear and 4.0 percent in 2000 from negative 13.2 percent at the
\nheight of the crisis in 1998, the ADB predicted.<\/p>\n
Malaysia is to expand 2.0 percent this year and 3.9 percent
\nnext year after its economy shrank 7.5 percent in 1998.<\/p>\n
Thailand, where the currency meltdown originated in mid-1997,
\nis to reverse negative 10.0 percent growth in 1998 to expand by
\n4.0 percent this year and 5.0 percent in 2000, the bank said.
\nSouth Asia is to grow by an average 5.5 percent this year and 6.1
\npercent next year from 5.7 percent in 1998.<\/p>\n
The Pacific island nations are forecast to grow 3.1 percent
\nthis year from 0.5 percent in 1998, the ADB said.<\/p>\n
ADB growth forecast for SE Asia
\n Economy 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
\n SE Asia 7.0 3.9 -7.5 3.0 4.5
\n Cambodia 7.0 2.0 1.3 5.0 --
\n Indonesia 7.8 4.9 -13.2 2.0 4.0
\n Laos 6.9 6.9 4.0 4.0 --
\n Malaysia 8.6 7.7 -7.5 2.0 3.9
\n Myanmar 6.4 5.7 5.6 6.6 4.0
\n Philippines 5.8 5.2 -0.5 3.0 4.5
\n Thailand 5.5 -1.3 -10.0 4.0 5.0
\n Vietnam 9.3 8.2 5.8 4.5 5.1
\n Singapore 6.9 7.8 1.5 5.0 6.0<\/p>",
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