Aceh conflict: The one-sided war<\/p>\n
Tiarma Siboro, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Many in military circles believe that the outcome of the military
\noperation in Aceh will end in an anticlimax, believing that Free
\nAceh Movement (GAM) rebels will not choose to head into a cold-
\nblooded struggle.<\/p>\n
A senior military officer said that many rebel leaders had in
\nfact fled Aceh and headed for safer places such as North Sumatra
\nand Malaysia.<\/p>\n
It is possible that those running overseas will launch a
\npolitical campaign to draw international support.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, those fleeing to other parts of Indonesia could
\nplan terror attacks, the officer warned.<\/p>\n
The officer also predicted that war in Aceh would end in an
\nanticlimax, just like the U.S.-led military invasion of Iraq,
\nwhich did not see widespread warfare in Baghdad.<\/p>\n
He said he did not believe that GAM would engage the military
\nfor a long time, even in guerrilla warfare.<\/p>\n
Another military officer, who has launched an intelligence
\noperation in the region, said he believed that once a large-scale
\nmilitary operation began, GAM members "will simply surrender to
\nus".<\/p>\n
"The current strategy will be more effective for soldiers to
\navoid rights violations. We will intensify intelligence to
\nseparate the common people from GAM rebels as well as to take
\ninto custody those surrendering to the Republic (of Indonesia).<\/p>\n
"I predict that once we launch a large-scale operation against
\nseveral GAM camps ... I foresee that only few militant members
\nwill keep fighting," the source said.<\/p>\n
Besides conducting an intelligence operation, the military
\nwill also cut off the supply flow of GAM.<\/p>\n
The military estimates that GAM has about 5,000 men equipped
\nwith no more than 2,000 weapons. However, since the humanitarian
\npause promoted by then president Abdurrahman Wahid in 2000, GAM
\nhas recruited 3,000 more members and increased its military
\nstrength by forging deals with arms dealers from both Jakarta and
\nabroad.<\/p>\n
Currently GAM rebels are equipped with some automatic rifles,
\nincluding SS-1s, AK-47s, AK-54s and grenade launchers.<\/p>\n
However, the intelligence officer believes that members
\nrecruited after 2000 are not as militant as their seniors because
\nmost of the new recruits come from towns and are not accustomed
\nto living in the jungle and as such are not prepared for lengthy
\nguerrilla warfare.<\/p>\n
To counter guerrilla warfare, the Indonesian Military (TNI)
\nhas planned to deploy at least 50,000 troops to crush the rebels.<\/p>\n
The first source said the huge deployment was needed to secure
\nthe people as well as vital installations in the province,
\nincluding those belonging to gas company PT Arun NGL and oil
\ncompany ExxonMobile Oil Indonesia in Lhokseumawe.<\/p>\n
Demonstrating its strength, TNI has also readied 13 Scorpion
\ntanks, 23 amphibious tanks belonging to the Navy, 12 regular Navy
\ntanks, two F-16 jet fighters, four Hawk-200s, six Hercules, one
\nSuperpuma, five Twinpack helicopters and six OV-10 Bronco
\naircraft.<\/p>\n
TNI predicts that the first phase of the operation will take
\nsix months, and another one-and-half years to restore security
\nand order in the province, the source said.<\/p>\n
He said the military was fully prepared for battle and crush
\nthe rebellion.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/aceh-conflict-the-one-sided-war-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}