A ripple that became a tsunami<\/p>\n
By Sidesh Kaul<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): President B.J. Habibie is a cornered man. In a
\nquick reversal made under the burden of mounting international
\npressure, he hastily called a press conference on Sept. 12 at the
\nPresidential Palace in Jakarta and checked the growing influence
\nof the Army in full view of the world by agreeing to
\ninternational peacekeepers in East Timor.<\/p>\n
In January of this year, Habibie agreed to hold a referendum
\non autonomy for East Timor, in what many saw as a risky gamble.
\nThe ballot was conducted successfully under the aegis of the
\nUnited Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) and the protection
\nof the Indonesian armed forces. The result of the ballot, as
\nannounced by UNAMET, indicated the majority of the East Timorese
\nrejected autonomy, or, in other words, wanted independence. All
\nhell broke loose shortly afterward when pro-Indonesian militias,
\nin connivance with the Indonesian armed forces, used mindless and
\nbrutal violence to voice their frustration.<\/p>\n
While some critics may say that in compromising the security
\nand integrity of the nation, Habibie committed political suicide,
\nthe fact often goes unnoticed that Habibie has done a service by
\nshowing the whole world that in a fledgling democracy without the
\nproper democratic infrastructure and institutions, the armed
\nforces has a major role.<\/p>\n
Here was a President who was unpopular, uncertain of his
\npolitical future and beleaguered by a multitude of forces both at
\nhome and abroad. Everybody knew the East Timor issue was bound to
\ncreate factions within the government, the armed forces and the
\npolity.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian people themselves are divided on this issue.
\nThere was and is no consensus among the various political parties
\non the issue of East Timor. By agreeing to the referendum,
\nHabibie risks not having the support of the legislature when the
\nresults of the referendum come up for ratification before the
\nPeople's Consultative Assembly.<\/p>\n
Moreover, there was a persistent chorus of demands from
\nvarious countries to hold the ballot, as well as threats of
\npunitive economic isolation. The reasons for holding the ballot
\nwere compelling. Habibie knew which way the vote was going to go
\nand yet he chose to forge ahead with the referendum. Why did he
\ndo this? Was he overcome by a sudden surge of democratic
\nadrenalin that propelled him into this courageous step? Or was
\nthis a desperate attempt for political survival, with the lives
\nof the East Timorese and the collective pride of the Indonesian
\npeople mere sacrificial pawns? These questions will be debated at
\nlength in the days to come.<\/p>\n
East Timor is a sensitive issue in Indonesia. For the last 25
\nyears, children have grown up learning about this province which
\nwas \"liberated\" from the Portuguese by brave Indonesian soldiers.
\nThis act of liberation itself, over the years, has been imprinted
\non the psyche of every Indonesian as a just and righteous act
\nagainst cruel and exploitative colonizers. After several
\ncenturies of exploitation, some Indonesians view the current
\nsympathetic noises made by the Portuguese as hypocritical
\nrepentance, while others view it as a sophisticated vendetta.<\/p>\n
This is part of the East Timor psycho-cultural baggage that
\ncannot be ignored if one is to find a lasting solution to this
\nterritory. The \"liberation\" of East Timor is naturally part of
\nthe legend that has been drilled into the rank and file of the
\nArmy. To overturn the magic of this legend overnight is a tall
\norder and any attempts made to force a change in belief would
\nlead to chaos. This is precisely what has happened and the
\nconcern is that this chaos might grow in dimensions and take
\nnewer forms in the days to come.<\/p>\n
Gen. Wiranto has emerged from the Timor situation with his
\nreputation in tatters and some of the credibility he earned in
\nthe early days of the reform movement irreversibly lost. The
\nIndonesian Army that once stood like a veritable juggernaut
\ncontrolling every facet of Indonesian life, now cringes at
\ndiatribes and threats from Mary Robinson of the UN High
\nCommissioner for Human Rights. From the outside the Army appears
\ndemoralized, confused and leaderless, and the chorus of critics
\nthat want the Army to be banished from the political theater is
\ngrowing to a crescendo.<\/p>\n
The East Timor issue has caused nationalistic sections within
\nthe Indonesian polity to take an anti-Western stance. Recent
\nhistory is witness to the fact that Indonesia's past anti-Western
\npostures have had disastrous consequences for the economy. The
\nconcern here is that ordinary Indonesians, cornered and confused
\nby the plethora of negativity, would fall prey to the temptations
\nof populist jingoism and unwittingly retard their own chances for
\nrevival.<\/p>\n
The list of problems seems never ending. An unresolved Bank
\nBali scandal that appears to get more complicated with each
\npassing day; the suspension of aid by the International Monetary
\nFund and the World Bank; the threat of trade sanctions from large
\ntrading nations; weak leadership; a divided Army; a divided
\nnation; squabbling political parties; the distant rumblings of
\nthe Aceh secessionist movement.<\/p>\n
There is great concern on the backlash all this could have on
\nIndonesia's economic recovery. With the crescendo of scathing
\ncondemnation pouring in from all quarters, Indonesia runs the
\nrisk of being classified alongside pariah nations. This is
\nsomething the proud Indonesian people would find hard to stomach
\nbecause they were never part of the country's decision-making
\nprocess (or lack of it) in the first place.<\/p>\n
The carnage in East Timor and its economic and political
\nfallout is the result of machinations and maneuverings at the
\nhighest levels, by the political elite who have unhesitatingly
\nsacrificed national pride at the altar of political expediency.
\nThe fallout from East Timor threatens to reach epic proportions.
\nThe ripple has become a tsunami.<\/p>\n
During the New Order regime, Soeharto successfully exploited
\nthe dual function of the Army to neutralize all political
\nopponents, real or imagined. Even when all opposition was
\nsuccessfully neutered, East Timor -- and Aceh -- provided the
\nArmy with a tangible threat to justify its dual function. With
\nthe referendum in East Timor going against Indonesia, this
\nlegitimacy has evaporated. The system of governance has thus been
\ndeprived of an important pillar, and nobody ever planned for this
\neventuality.<\/p>\n
The liberation of East Timor in 1975 firmly put the Army on a
\npedestal as defenders of Indonesia's sovereignty. For the next
\ntwo decades the Army continued to fight various local elements
\nwithin East Timor that wanted independence from the country.<\/p>\n
Thousands of Indonesian soldiers have given up their lives to
\nprotect Indonesian interests in East Timor, leaving behind widows
\nand orphans who cannot understand the callous haste with which
\nHabibie agreed to the referendum. Habibie's move has definitely
\nsplit the Army and shown it in an extremely poor light. While
\nthis drama has succeeded in showing Habibie courageously moving
\nin the direction world leaders want him to move, Wiranto, his
\narch political rival, has emerged as a power-hungry general who
\nhas no control over his troops.<\/p>\n
Could this wanton carnage and confusion have stemmed from the
\npolitical ambitions of these two men -- Wiranto and Habibie? A
\npossible power play between these men could be seen as follows:
\nWiranto holds the key to the presidential election -- the key to
\nthe crucial swing vote. In the days leading up to the referendum
\nin East Timor, Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), which
\nwas victorious in the June general election, took a stand on the
\nEast Timor issue that was diametrically opposed to Habibie's
\nstand, prompting Wiranto to cozy up to PDI Perjuangan. Megawati's
\nstand came against the backdrop of a faction in the ruling
\nGolkar Party voicing opposition to Habibie's presidential
\nnomination.<\/p>\n
The Bank Bali scandal added decibels to the calls for
\nHabibie's resignation. Deserted and without allies, Habibie was
\nleft with little to choose from. In a desperate attempt,
\nHabibie's final gambit was a classic, self-destructive endgame
\nthat would split the ranks of the Army, clip Wiranto's growing
\nambitions and, at the same time, portray Habibie as a
\nfreethinking and just-minded liberal.<\/p>\n
Against the backdrop of the East Timor referendum, Habibie has
\nall but destroyed his political future, and in turn removed from
\nits pedestal the Army and checked the ambitions of Wiranto.<\/p>\n
Whatever the scenario, the net result is that the clock has
\nbeen set back for Indonesia not only in terms of economic
\nrecovery and reform, but also in terms of international
\ncredibility. Confusion and insecurity reign supreme and the
\nfuture seems fraught with uncertainty. While it is easy to
\npontificate with the benefit of hindsight, the time has now come
\nfor a strong, clean and decisive civilian body of governance to
\nemerge and seize the opportunity to lead Indonesia from this
\ndarkness.<\/p>\n
The Jakarta-based writer is a commentator on economic and
\npolitical affairs.<\/p>",
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