A new, durable Asia-Pacific security order<\/p>\n
By Juwono Sudarsono<\/p>\n
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations will open a new
\nchapter in its 27 year history in Bangkok next week. Political
\nscientist Juwono Sudarsono takes a close look at the significance
\nof the event.<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The ASEAN Regional Forum, which meets for its
\nfirst formal session in Bangkok next Monday, provides the
\nopportunity for all 18 participating states to assess the
\nimplications of the fundamental shifts in the power
\nconfigurations in Asia and the Pacific following the end of the
\nCold War nearly five years ago.<\/p>\n
Conceptually, three underlying issues will have to be
\naddressed in conceiving a new and durable Asia-Pacific security
\norder.<\/p>\n
The first involves the role of the major powers. Lack of
\nleadership in the United States and a temporarily weakened Russia
\nmean that the overall strategic balance will be largely
\ndetermined by the growing power of Japan and China. A new
\nquadrilateral equilibrium will mark the security framework as
\nChina and Japan slowly but surely assert themselves politically
\nand militarily. These trends, precisely because they are
\ninevitable, may unsettle states that for too long have been
\npsychologically dependent on Western external guarantees. Signals
\nfrom Beijing and Tokyo, in addition to those emanating from
\nWashington and Moscow, will have to merit more serious
\nconsideration.<\/p>\n
Secondly, in Northeast Asia, the process of Korean unification
\nwill be a matter of timing. It must be ironed out in protracted
\nnegotiations by both sides of the 38th parallel. Economic
\nresilience and political stability are on the side of the South
\nKoreans, who will largely determine the terms and conditions of
\nunification. But the new leadership in Pyongyang will have to be
\nallowed a tangible political role to co-determine how the
\nunification process should be consummated.<\/p>\n
In Southeast Asia, sustained economic growth has enabled most
\nASEAN countries to upgrade their military hardware and improve
\ndefense planning. Reduced American military presence and growing
\nindividual ASEAN country assertiveness in projecting military
\npreparedness has led to some degree of disquiet.<\/p>\n
Rising annual defense budgets and greater allocation for
\nmilitary spending relative to Gross Domestic Products has led
\neach ASEAN country to embark on improved joint defense
\ncoordination. But the Five Power Defense Arrangement, a veritable
\nrelic of the Cold War, must be progressively phased out if
\nregion-based security is to engage Indonesia's enthusiasm and
\ndispel Beijing's suspicion that it is maintained to contain
\nChina.<\/p>\n
ASEAN must also provide \"second track\" benchmarks that
\ncomplement economic growth and transparent defense planning at a
\npace both acceptable and amenable to each individual state's
\nsense of military security, economic advancement and political
\nprestige.<\/p>\n
Finally, as economic growth moves further apace, individual
\nAsia-Pacific countries -- particularly those facing acute
\npopulation pressure -- must seriously tackle the all-important
\nissue of planting peace and security at its root: establishment
\nof a more equitable and participatory domestic social and
\neconomic order. Jakarta, Manila, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok face
\nmounting domestic problems arising from the ill effects of
\nunbridled market-driven industrialization resulting in economic
\ndisparities and political disputes between the rich and the poor,
\nbetween central authority and provincial autonomy.<\/p>\n
The ASEAN Regional Forum hopefully will provide a broad set of
\nguidelines promoting the notion of cooperative security. In
\nessence, cooperative security seeks to ensure that however high
\nthe level of tension between nations, resort to unilateral
\nmilitary force will entail severe political and economic
\npenalties that no state can afford to sustain.<\/p>\n
Conversely, all participants in the endeavor must ensure that
\nno single state will need to find itself in a untenable position
\nin which it would have to resort to such desperate action. As
\nwith sustainable development, the long-term goal of crafting a
\nnew and durable security order in Asia and the Pacific requires
\nan inter-generational political commitment.<\/p>\n
The writer is professor of International Relations at the
\nUniversity of Indonesia in Jakarta.<\/p>",
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