59th Independence Day and Indonesia's future<\/p>\n
Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta<\/p>\n
After eight years of multiple crises encompassing all fields
\nof life, and many pessimistic evaluations and assessments,
\nincluding mine, it is about time to ask ourselves what lies ahead
\nfor us? Should we be more optimistic about the future? Are we
\nstill going to keep muddling through or are better days going to
\ncome soon?<\/p>\n
Some scholars from both within and without Indonesia were even
\nthinking earlier about whether a united Indonesia consisting of
\nsuch diversity could be maintained. They were wondering whether
\nthe founding fathers understood the rationale for such unity or
\nwhether they were mainly driven by the struggle against Dutch
\ncolonialism.<\/p>\n
Others have argued that Indonesia is doomed to become a
\nfailed state with the all the ensuing anarchy that could be a
\nreal calamity for the region. The question for them was how many
\nstates Indonesia would splinter into.<\/p>\n
Those pessimistic pronouncements are now largely forgotten.
\nThings have not yet turned around completely, but the pessimism
\nhas been overcome. Of course, real suffering and real setbacks
\nare still being felt, but there is no more talk about the
\npossible breakdown of the state or the implosion and
\ndisintegration of Indonesia into several states.<\/p>\n
The most recent and best indication of this has been the
\nseries of elections that have taken place, with two of the
\nplanned three already implemented peacefully, democratically and
\nhonestly. The Indonesian people have shown some political
\nmaturity, with 84.06 percent participating in the legislative
\nelections in April, and 78.23 percent in the first round of the
\npresidential election in July.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian people have brought democracy several notches
\nhigher and they have to be congratulated for that. This is a
\nwatershed in Indonesia's political development, and one of which
\nwe should be proud.<\/p>\n
It is also a major step toward overcoming the multiple crises
\nthat have been afflicting our country. If the second and final
\nround of the presidential election brings about better
\nleadership, then the ground has been laid to move on with
\nnational development and modernization.<\/p>\n
We know now that despite the inadequacies and lacunae that
\naffected the reform process, we have the wherewithal to overcome
\nthe crises. The people have been sufficiently resilient and
\npatient despite all the setbacks.<\/p>\n
Decentralization toward regional autonomy, however messy and
\nfull of inadequacies it still is, is being implemented with
\nqualified success. At the very least, regional conflicts have
\nbeen alleviated. More then that, it has brought democracy closer
\nto the common people at the grassroots level, including in the
\nouter islands.<\/p>\n
While unemployment is still high and poverty continues to
\nafflict 18 percent of the people, it has come down from 24
\npercent at the height of the crisis. Per capita income is again
\nback to the level it was before the crisis, around US$1,000 per
\nhead.<\/p>\n
The fundamentals of the macroeconomy are healthy: Inflation is
\nunder control, the fiscal deficit is minimal at about 1.2 percent
\nof the budget, foreign reserves stand at about $35.9 billion, the
\ncurrent account in the balance of payments is set positive for
\nthe near future, growth is close to 5 percent, and the foreign
\nexchange rate is relatively stable.<\/p>\n
Of course, microeconomic and non-economic factors still
\npresent real problems that have been hampering foreign
\ninvestment: The lack of the rule of law (including judicial
\ncorruption), and security issues still present uncertainties,
\nalthough regional conflicts, except for Aceh, have basically been
\novercome. Disturbances in Java have been prevented and some
\nsemblance of stability has been achieved.<\/p>\n
Corruption is still rampant, and a lot has yet to be done,
\nwhile leadership in this regard has been notably weak. While this
\nis an issue that will need to be tackled over the long term,
\nvisible progress needs to be made.<\/p>\n
Global and regional terrorists have been put on the defensive,
\nbut not overcome. With regard to winning the hearts and minds of
\nMuslims, a lot has been achieved by moderate leaders, as has been
\nshown by the legislative elections and the first round of the
\npresidential election.<\/p>\n
Moderate Muslim groups and parties, together with the
\nnationalists, have won overwhelmingly, gaining almost 80 percent
\nof the vote. But more needs to be done. Democracy with social
\njustice needs to be established with the Muslims as the
\nmainstream and mainstay of Indonesia's political and democratic
\ndevelopment.<\/p>\n
The economy needs to return to annual growth of 6-7 percent,
\nwhich is the minimum that is necessary to employ the two million
\nnew workers coming onto the labor market each year. In addition,
\nexerting democratic control over the Indonesian Armed Forces
\n(TNI) should be a priority because otherwise it could create a
\nsplit in the body politic, and tensions or even conflicts in the
\nfuture. That is why the TNI Bill, which is currently being
\nconsidered by the House, must be deliberated in earnest and with
\na clear view of Indonesia's democratic development.<\/p>\n
But above all, leadership is important and crucial for making
\nthis vital change possible in Indonesia during the next phase of
\nnational development and modernization, and for ensuring that it
\nis trusted and supported by the people. The choice in the final
\nround of the presidential election is not one of who is best, but
\nrather of who will pose the least risk in overcoming the
\nobstacles to national and democratic development.<\/p>\n
Megawati, who is pro-pluralism and has allowed democracy and
\neconomic growth to flourish at the initiative of society and the
\npeople, should be the choice if she could improve on her
\nleadership, that is to say, become more proactive and closer to
\nthe people. She also needs to recruit a better team, adopt a more
\nhands-on approach to overcoming constraints on the economy, such
\nas corruption, and be willing to establish coalitions with the
\nother main parties.<\/p>\n
As has been said in an earlier article, the other candidate,
\nSusilo Bambang Yudhoyono, still poses cause for concern as he is
\nencircled by so many ex-generals from the former regime. Their
\nrelationship with the New Order regime is still too fresh in our
\nminds for us to be able to trust the leadership of the state to
\nthem.<\/p>\n
His VP candidate, Jusuf Kalla, also suffers from a problem of
\ncredibility, especially among the Indonesian Chinese and foreign
\neconomic interests, as his group and he himself are considered to
\nbe too narrowly nationalist. Being anti-foreign and introducing
\naffirmative action policies will be counterproductive to the
\neffort to attract private capital to stimulate Indonesia's
\neconomic growth.<\/p>\n
Making a choice is necessary for Indonesia's future
\ndevelopment. One can see Indonesia's future travail as a glass
\nthat is half empty or half full. Businessmen always tend to see
\nit as half empty.<\/p>\n
Indonesians should assess their leaders with a critical eye.
\nIn today's Indonesia, it is important for leaders to first
\ndevelop trust. Together with the people, they can bring Indonesia
\ntowards a better future through democratic means and social
\njustice for the populace at large.<\/p>\n
The writer is a cofounder and member of the board of trustees
\nof the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).<\/p>",
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