5 things to know about Negeri Sembilan\u2019s state polls on Aug 1 - a\nhigh-stakes test for Anwar\u2019s PH<\/p>\n
Interest is centred on whether Pakatan Harapan can rebound from a\ndismal performance in the Jul 11 Johor state election and fend off a\nchallenge from a partner teaming up with a rival.<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR\/SINGAPORE: Nearly 900,000 eligible voters in Negeri\nSembilan could head to the ballot boxes on Saturday (Aug 1) in a state\nelection widely seen as a high-stakes test for Malaysia Prime Minister\nAnwar Ibahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.<\/p>\n
All eyes will be on whether PH can rebound from a dismal performance\nin the Jul 11 Johor polls, retain a state where it is the incumbent, and\nfend off a challenge from a partner teaming up with a rival.<\/p>\n
PH is contesting all 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state\nlegislative assembly.<\/p>\n
Its partner at the federal level, Barisan Nasional (BN), has fielded\ncandidates in 25 of those seats in an alliance with opposition coalition\nPerikatan Nasional (PN), which is contesting the remaining 11 seats.<\/p>\n
Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), a PN member, is contesting\nin the election on its own and fielding 24 candidates, setting up\ncontests against its coalition partners amid rifts within the opposition\nbloc.<\/p>\n
The PN-BN pact is widely seen as the clearest sign yet that the\nfederal unity government may not last until the next general election,\ndue by February 2028, even as BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi insists it\nwill stick with Anwar\u2019s unity government until the current federal\nparliament\u2019s term ends.<\/p>\n
Analysts have said after losing ground in the Johor state election,\nanother PH setback in Negeri Sembilan will pile pressure on Anwar to\ndissolve the federal parliament, paving the way for a snap general\nelection.<\/p>\n
Retaining control of Negeri Sembilan would hand Anwar an equaliser,\nshowing he can campaign effectively in a state led by a chief minister\nfrom his own party.<\/p>\n
It will not be an easy task, experts have said.<\/p>\n
The BN-PN pact is likely to consolidate the crucial Malay vote at the\nexpense of PH, observers said, giving them an edge in Negeri\nSembilan.<\/p>\n
The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), BN\u2019s lynchpin party,\nwon 14 seats in the 2023 state polls while PH secured 17 and PN won\nfive.<\/p>\n
Before the state assembly was dissolved, Negeri Sembilan was governed\nby a PH-BN administration, replicating a power-sharing model of the\nfederal unity government.<\/p>\n
To form the government in Negeri Sembilan, 19 seats are needed.<\/p>\n
WHEN WILL RESULTS BE OUT?<\/p>\n
Early voting took place on Tuesday, with the turnout of over 91 per\ncent exceeding the target set by the Election Commission (EC).<\/p>\n
A total of 14,995 early voters, consisting of military and police\npersonnel as well as their spouses, cast their ballots at 38 polling\ncentres statewide, news agency Bernama reported.<\/p>\n
Most voters will however cast their ballots on Saturday between 8am\nand 6pm.<\/p>\n
The EC is targeting a turnout of between 72 and 75 per cent, its\nchairman Ramlan Harun said, citing the \u201clively campaign atmosphere\u201d.<\/p>\n
The turnout was 68 per cent in the 2023 polls, according to news\noutlet The Edge.<\/p>\n
Ramlan said on Friday that the full results of Saturday\u2019s polls would\nbe announced before midnight, with preliminary results expected from\naround 10pm, reported Malay Mail.<\/p>\n
In the 2023 state polls, the EC announced at about 10pm that the PH\nand BN alliance had secured a two-thirds majority, although unofficial\nresults began emerging earlier.<\/p>\n
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES?<\/p>\n
Ong Kian Ming, a Democratic Action Party (DAP) member and former\ndeputy minister, has predicted that BN-PN is likely to win between 23\nand 25 seats in Negeri Sembilan.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that\nMalay support for both of these coalitions will exceed 70 per cent and\nallow candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote,\nwhich allowed PH to win a number of seats in the state elections in\n2018,\u201d he wrote in a commentary published by local media on Jul 27.<\/p>\n
In the 2018 election, PH had contested in three-cornered fights\nagainst BN and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) in the majority of\nseats.<\/p>\n
In the 2023 polls, BN scraped through with narrow majorities across\nmultiple seats, while PAS made history by capturing its first-ever seats\nin the state on the back of rising Malay-majority support.<\/p>\n
PAS is the dominant party in PN while DAP is part of PH.<\/p>\n
Think tank Ilham Centre predicts that the PN-BN alliance is on track\nto win at least 22 seats to form a \u201cstable majority\u201d, while PH is\nprojected to win at least nine seats.<\/p>\n
The remaining five seats are difficult to predict, it said.<\/p>\n
Political analyst Adib Zalkapli of Viewfinder Global Affairs said PH\nwould \u201cneed a miracle\u201d to retain Negeri Sembilan but if it does, it\nwould be a \u201chuge relief\u201d for the prime minister.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would also provide a much-needed boost, allowing Anwar to argue\nthat his position at the federal level remains secure and that he\ncontinues to enjoy strong political support,\u201d he told CNA.<\/p>\n
Observers also previously said that a hung assembly remains a\ndistinct possibility - with PN-BN and PH each garnering 18 seats as\nneither fails to reach the 19-seat threshold for a majority.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe can expect prolonged negotiations between the coalitions once the\nfinal votes have been counted,\u201d Adib said.<\/p>\n
\u201cShould no coalition secure a clear majority, the (ruler) is likely\nto play its constitutional role in facilitating the formation of a\nstable Negeri Sembilan government,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
With PN\u2019s cooperation with BN expected to consolidate the Malay vote,\nAdib said the election would provide a test of whether the pact could\nbecome a viable model in other parts of Malaysia.<\/p>\n
\u201cHow the Malays vote in Negeri Sembilan will determine if the\nalliance should be replicated elsewhere,\u201d he told CNA.<\/p>\n
Socio-political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya\nsaid that although the prevailing view is that BN-PN alliance has the\nadvantage, Anwar\u2019s PH still has a \u201cgenuine, though slim ch<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/5-things-to-know-about-negeri-sembilans-state-polls-on-aug-1-a-high-stakes-test-for-anwars-ph-1785538223", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }