The 2027 State Budget Draft (RAPBN) is considered to have brought a\nfairly positive initial sentiment for the Indonesian capital market.\nHowever, this positive impact has not automatically driven a sustainable\nrerating of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG).<\/p>\n
Head of Research at RHB Sekuritas, Andrey Wijaya, assessed that the\ngovernment\u2019s policy direction in the 2027 RAPBN is overall quite\nrational. Consolidation of state-owned enterprises (BUMN), more\nefficient procurement, stricter supervision of commodity exports, and\nincreased investment are seen as capable of improving state efficiency\nand the economy\u2019s productive capacity.<\/p>\n
From the fiscal side, the government is targeting state spending in\nthe 2027 RAPBN to reach Rp4,079.2 trillion with state revenue of Rp3,426\ntrillion. The state budget deficit is targeted to decline to 2.40% of\ngross domestic product (GDP), compared with the 2026 outlook of\n2.85%.<\/p>\n
Andrey assessed that the deficit target is still achievable even\nthough fiscal space is relatively limited. Based on the revenue and\nspending targets, the deficit is estimated at around Rp653 trillion.<\/p>\n
However, the state revenue growth target of 6.8% is considered quite\nchallenging, especially because economic growth in the first half of\n2026 only reached 5.45%.<\/p>\n
Managing Research at Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia, Harry Su, assessed\nthat President Prabowo Subianto\u2019s speech in the financial note and the\n2027 RAPBN generally took place without major surprises. However, a\nnumber of government policies are considered to provide positive\nsentiment for the rupiah and the capital market.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn general, the impact of President Prabowo\u2019s speech on the rupiah\nand the market is quite positive,\u201d he said on Friday (14\/8\/2026).<\/p>\n
One of the points highlighted was the performance of Danantara\nSumberdaya Indonesia (DSI). The government stated that DSI has collected\nadditional export proceeds of around US$5 billion in the first 2.5\nmonths of its operation.<\/p>\n
The government also brought a number of large projects and financing\nschemes in the 2027 RAPBN, including the Danantara Development\nManagement Fund (DDMF), solar energy development of up to 100 GW,\nelectric vehicles, the Indonesia Financial Center, and the Giant Sea\nWall project worth around US$100 billion planned to take place over\n15\u201320 years.<\/p>\n
Andrey assessed that these projects are realistic in the long term,\nbut require large private capital, regulatory certainty, and discipline\nin execution.<\/p>\n
From the capital market side, Andrey sees the initial impact of the\n2027 RAPBN on the IHSG as tending to be positive. The lower deficit\ntarget, affirmation of the investment grade rating, and an increasingly\nclear project pipeline can increase market confidence.<\/p>\n
Fiscal discipline also has the potential to hold back the rise in\ngovernment bond yields, support the rupiah, and support the valuation of\ninterest-rate-sensitive stocks.<\/p>\n
However, this positive sentiment has not automatically resulted in a\nsustainable rerating of the IHSG. The risk of greater state\nintervention, potential governance problems, project execution risk, and\ncontingent liabilities that may arise from BUMN financing and government\nguarantees remain concerns.<\/p>\n
\u201cA more sustainable rerating requires a credible financing structure\nand significant private sector participation,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
Harry also assessed that investor optimism will depend heavily on the\ngovernment\u2019s ability to ensure major programmes run with strong\ngovernance. He highlighted the oversight risk of national programmes\nlaunched quickly and massively.<\/p>\n
\u201cLike MBG, what needs to be worried about is the governance challenge\nor corruption driven by the launch of national programmes that are too\nfast and massive,\u201d said Harry.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/2027-state-budget-draft-seen-as-positive-sentiment-for-jci-rerating-remains-a-challenge-1786891821", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }