2004 polls: Who benefits?<\/p>\n
Adi Abidin and Wandy Nicodemus, Asia Foundation, Jakarta<\/p>\n
One of the amended articles of the 1945 Constitution states
\nthat the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) shall be comprised
\nof the House of Representatives (DPR) and Regional
\nRepresentatives Council (DPD), both of which are to be elected in
\na general election.<\/p>\n
In the context of the 2004 elections, the amendment is in
\naccordance with the electoral bill submitted by the Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri administration in May this year. This should make
\nthe job of the special committee on the electoral bill (Pansus
\nPemilu), which was formed last July 8, a bit easier. As we wait
\nfor the team to proceed in September, it is worthwhile to look
\ninto the bill, particularly the issue of the allocation of seats
\nin the DPR and its consequences in the 2004 elections.<\/p>\n
For a start, the next DPR will have 550 elected seats,
\ncompared to 462 in the current DPR. Of the 500 total seats in the
\nDPR today, 38 of them are \"free\" for the military and the police.
\nIn 2004, all seats in DPR and DPD will be contested. Although
\nthere will be 88 \"new\" seats, the proposed system that allocates
\nseats according to population per province will heighten the
\ndifference between Java and the \"outer islands\", particularly for
\neastern Indonesia.<\/p>\n
The following is a simulation of seat allocation per province,
\nin accordance with Articles 7, 8 and 9 in the electoral bill.
\nThese calculations are based on 2000 data from the Central Bureau
\nof Statistics which reports the population figure at 203 million.
\nTo get the number of seats per province, the population of each
\nprovince is divided by the total population. The resulting number
\nis then multiplied by the total of 550 seats.<\/p>\n
On a nationwide average, one DPR seat will represent 371,798
\npeople, with variations ranging from 420,195 people per seat in
\nGorontalo to 316,810 people per seat in Bangka-Belitung.<\/p>\n
As the proposed system is trying to strengthen the DPR, there
\nwould not be any automatic allocation of one seat per regency
\n(kabupaten) or township as in 1999. In 2004, the heavily
\npopulated provinces in Java would gain the most DPR seats. West
\nJava, for example, even though Banten has split from it, would
\ngain 14 to 96 seats, with Banten itself having 22.<\/p>\n
East Java would gain the most with an additional 25 seats from
\nthe current 68, bringing the number of representatives to 93. In
\nall, the provinces of Java would gain 91 \"new\" seats, with a
\ntotal of 325 seats or 59 percent of the total DPR membership.<\/p>\n
Some provinces in Sumatra would also gain seats, but only
\nNorth Sumatra would have a substantial number of additional
\nseats, 31 in 2004 compared to the current 24. Sumatra, as a
\nwhole, would in total be represented by 115 seats, compared to
\nthe current 100.<\/p>\n
The rest of the provinces, the so-called Eastern Indonesia
\nArea, may likely have fewer seats. With the establishment of the
\nNorth Maluku province, which would ahve two seats in 2004, the
\nMaluku province representatives would decrease from six to three
\nin the next election. The province with the largest decline in
\nseats would be Papua; it would only send five people to the DPR
\nin 2004 compared to the current 13 seats.<\/p>\n
Such a simulation raises the interesting question of who would
\n\"benefit\" in such an arrangement. Assuming that voting preference
\nwould be similar to 1999, parties with a strong base in Java --
\nthe Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the
\nNational Awakening Party (PKB) and United Development Party
\n(PPP), would certainly benefit the most in 2004.<\/p>\n
Of 550 seats, PDI Perjuangan could get 185 (33.6 percent of
\ntotal seats), for instance. The Golkar Party which received most
\nof its seats in 1999 from eastern Indonesia (55 of 120), would
\nlose seats from that area, although it would be compensated by
\nadditional seats from Java (53 in 2004 compared to 41 in 1999),
\nwhich would bring its total to 128, a gain of eight seats from
\n1999. Percentage wise, however, Golkar loses by 0.8 percent of
\ntotal seats to 23.4 percent.<\/p>\n
Indeed, this is only a simulated forecast. Voting preferences
\nfor the next election could well be different from the 1999
\nelections, affected by among other things the strength of the
\nattachment of a voter to a political party, how well a voter
\nrates a party's performance in elected offices and how well
\nparties can convince would-be voters.<\/p>\n
Still, in the context of Java and the \"outer islands\", the
\nbill incorporate provisions on the regional legislative councils
\n(DPD), to balance the population-based DPR. Each province would
\nhave an equal number of four seats.<\/p>\n
The outer islands would then have more seats, 96 or 75
\npercent, compared to Java's 24 or 25 percent. In a joint session
\nof the DPR and DPD -- which form the new MPR -- the balance,
\nthough, would still favor Java with 349 representatives (or 52
\npercent), compared to the outer islands' 321 seats (or 48
\npercent).<\/p>\n
Who would have a better chance of winning DPD seats? Since
\npolitical parties are not allowed to field candidates and since
\nthe proposed bill allows civil servants, military and police
\nofficers to run as candidates with no requirement to retire
\nfirst, such people would have the better chance.<\/p>\n
They are the ones with the resources and the organization to
\ngain the candidacy and to get the votes. Moreover, the bill
\nprovides them with voting rights. Their votes could not go
\nelsewhere. This could be sort of compensation for the military
\nand police for their \"loss\" of the free seats in the DPR.<\/p>",
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