Tue, 11 Jan 2011
Indonesian stocks suffered a dramatic 4.2 per cent tumble on Monday, amid rising concern over inflation. But that should not distract attention from the underlying strength of south-east Asia’s largest economy, writes HSBC’s Wellian Wiranto.

Since the world financial crisis, Indonesia has become a mainstream destination for more and more investors and its improved profile is reflected in discussions over the country’s possible return to investment grade.

It used to be a matter of “if” the credit rating agencies would put the country back in the top league. Now it’s a question of “when”.

One reason is that Indonesia has proved to be doggedly resilient, thanks partly to the robust domestic consumption of its 240m people. The country clocked respectable growth of 4.5 per cent in 2009, while its more export-dependent neighbours fell into recession. Growth is expected to have accelerated to 6.1 per cent in 2010.

That helped to attract record portfolio inflows, with foreign ownership of Indonesian government bonds doubling from 15 per cent in the first quarter of 2009 to an all-time high of about 30 per cent in recent months.

A rising expectation that the country will be re-rated has been a forceful pull factor, along with recognition of its abundant natural resources, increasingly affluent middle class, and relatively cheap labour. We expect Fitch, which currently has the country at one notch below investment grade, to upgrade Indonesian sovereign bonds in the second half of this year. S&P and Moody’s, which currently rate Indonesia at two notches below, will most likely follow suit in 2012.

The sprawling archipelago is not free of weaknesses: it has poor infrastructure, lingering bureaucratic red tape and rigid labour laws.

The wait is still on for Bank Indonesia to tackle the inflation concerns that might have been behind Monday’s share price falls and strengthen its own credibility by hiking the policy rate from the current record low of 6.5 per cent, as we think it should.

But, all in all, we are positive on Indonesia. It was the only country in the G20 with a declining debt-to-GDP ratio in 2009, a trend that continued last year. Thanks to reduced government spending, its budget deficit for 2010 turned out to be 0.6 per cent of GDP, much lower than the 2.1 per cent expected at the start of the year.

A combination of strong growth, low sovereign debt and an agreeable fiscal balance is a good thing in normal times. In this day and age it is a rarity, and it makes Indonesia more than eligible for a promotion.

Wellian Wiranto is an Asian economist at HSBC in Singapore. This article is from the FT’s emerging markets blog: www.ft.com/beyondbrics



News Search/Filter
Transaction Rates
16 Jul 18
Buy
Sell
AED1
3,885.59
3,885.59
AFN1
197.13
197.13
ALL1
132.07
132.07
AMD1
29.71
29.71
ANG1
7,737.95
7,737.95
AOA1
56.07
56.07
ARS1
523.34
523.34
AUD1
10,587.37
10,587.37
AWG1
7,977.57
7,977.57
AZN1
8,382.91
8,382.91
BAM1
8,597.43
8,597.43
BBD1
7,135.95
7,135.95
BDT1
170.35
170.35
BGN1
8,527.92
8,527.92
BHD1
37,673.06
37,673.06
BIF1
8.05
8.05
BMD1
14,271.91
14,271.91
BND1
10,557.71
10,557.71
BOB1
2,066.07
2,066.07
BRL1
3,706.12
3,706.12
BSD1
14,271.91
14,271.91
BTC1
94,212,448
94,212,448
BTN1
208.52
208.52
BWP1
1,387.71
1,387.71
BYN1
7,250.59
7,250.59
BZD1
7,102.86
7,102.86
CAD1
10,847.07
10,847.07
CDF1
8.84
8.84
CHF1
14,239.87
14,239.87
CLF1
602,953.63
602,953.63
CLP1
21.92
21.92
CNH1
2,128.19
2,128.19
CNY1
2,131.53
2,131.53
COP1
4.98
4.98
CRC1
25.16
25.16
CUC1
14,271.91
14,271.91
CUP1
559.68
559.68
CVE1
150.86
150.86
CZK1
643.68
643.68
DJF1
80.17
80.17
DKK1
2,235.98
2,235.98
DOP1
287.64
287.64
DZD1
121.22
121.22
EGP1
797.33
797.33
ERN1
944.25
944.25
ETB1
517.07
517.07
EUR1
16,670.30
16,670.30
FJD1
6,801.03
6,801.03
FKP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
GBP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
GEL1
5,827.53
5,827.53
GGP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
GHS1
2,982.26
2,982.26
GIP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
GMD1
298.17
298.17
GNF1
1.57
1.57
GTQ1
1,904.82
1,904.82
GYD1
68.48
68.48
HKD1
1,818.41
1,818.41
HNL1
595.33
595.33
HRK1
2,254.66
2,254.66
HTG1
213.82
213.82
HUF1
51.54
51.54
IDR1
1.00
1.00
ILS1
3,916.28
3,916.28
IMP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
INR1
208.35
208.35
IQD1
11.97
11.97
IRR1
0.33
0.33
ISK1
133.13
133.13
JEP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
JMD1
109.37
109.37
JOD1
20,115.36
20,115.36
JPY1
126.97
126.97
KES1
141.71
141.71
KGS1
208.91
208.91
KHR1
3.52
3.52
KMF1
33.81
33.81
KPW1
15.85
15.85
KRW1
12.62
12.62
KWD1
47,087.25
47,087.25
KYD1
17,131.87
17,131.87
KZT1
41.66
41.66
LAK1
1.69
1.69
LBP1
9.42
9.42
LKR1
89.51
89.51
LRD1
89.33
89.33
LSL1
1,073.00
1,073.00
LYD1
10,413.92
10,413.92
MAD1
1,507.64
1,507.64
MDL1
854.90
854.90
MGA1
4.23
4.23
MKD1
270.41
270.41
MMK1
10.03
10.03
MNT1
5.85
5.85
MOP1
1,766.12
1,766.12
MRO1
40.14
40.14
MRU1
398.43
398.43
MUR1
416.08
416.08
MVR1
926.74
926.74
MWK1
19.71
19.71
MXN1
754.95
754.95
MYR1
3,522.62
3,522.62
MZN1
242.14
242.14
NAD1
1,072.99
1,072.99
NGN1
39.58
39.58
NIO1
450.45
450.45
NOK1
1,757.53
1,757.53
NPR1
130.34
130.34
NZD1
9,651.87
9,651.87
OMR1
37,079.05
37,079.05
PAB1
14,271.91
14,271.91
PEN1
4,365.12
4,365.12
PGK1
4,339.96
4,339.96
PHP1
266.44
266.44
PKR1
117.32
117.32
PLN1
3,865.05
3,865.05
PYG1
2.50
2.50
QAR1
3,919.96
3,919.96
RON1
3,579.00
3,579.00
RSD1
141.27
141.27
RUB1
228.27
228.27
RWF1
16.42
16.42
SAR1
3,805.48
3,805.48
SBD1
1,813.35
1,813.35
SCR1
1,054.02
1,054.02
SDG1
790.76
790.76
SEK1
1,604.61
1,604.61
SGD1
10,449.03
10,449.03
SHP1
18,877.66
18,877.66
SLL1
2.26
2.26
SOS1
24.69
24.69
SRD1
1,913.63
1,913.63
SSP1
109.56
109.56
STD1
0.67
0.67
STN1
675.75
675.75
SVC1
1,631.64
1,631.64
SYP1
27.69
27.69
SZL1
1,072.33
1,072.33
THB1
428.46
428.46
TJS1
1,554.20
1,554.20
TMT1
4,077.70
4,077.70
TND1
5,401.38
5,401.38
TOP1
6,184.77
6,184.77
TRY1
2,938.85
2,938.85
TTD1
2,118.24
2,118.24
TWD1
466.69
466.69
TZS1
6.27
6.27
UAH1
544.28
544.28
UGX1
3.84
3.84
USD1
14,271.91
14,271.91
UYU1
454.92
454.92
UZS1
1.82
1.82
VEF1
0.17
0.17
VND1
0.62
0.62
VUV1
130.69
130.69
WST1
5,521.26
5,521.26
XAF1
25.41
25.41
XAG1
225,719.93
225,719.93
XAU1
17,714,779.99
17,714,779.99
XCD1
5,280.90
5,280.90
XDR1
20,009.07
20,009.07
XOF1
25.41
25.41
XPD1
13,436,561.47
13,436,561.47
XPF1
139.69
139.69
XPT1
11,830,950.74
11,830,950.74
YER1
56.99
56.99
ZAR1
1,075.85
1,075.85
ZMW1
1,441.30
1,441.30
ZWL1
44.27
44.27
Taxation Exchange Rates
31 Aug 16 - 06 Sep 16
USD 1
13,232.00
AUD 1
10,043.30
CAD 1
10,213.70
DKK 1
1,999.40
HKD 1
1,706.22
MYR 1
3,283.28
NZD 1
9,623.63
NOK 1
1,605.23
GBP 1
17,433.70
SGD 1
9,757.68
SEK 1
1,569.45
CHF 1
13,631.10
JPY 100
13,101.00
MMK 1
11.01
INR 1
197.29
KWD 1
43,920.70
PKR 1
126.23
PHP 1
285.00
SAR 1
3,528.53
LKR 1
91.12
THB 1
382.08
BND 1
9,756.53
EUR 1
14,885.50
CNY 1
1,987.61

Okusi Associates: Indonesian Business & Management Services