Investors Anticipate Decrease in BI Rate
Monday, 02 October, 2006 | 20:18 WIB
TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta: Analysts are predicting that investors will focus on company shares that will gain positive impacts due to the planned decrease of the Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate
The analysts are convinced that the central bank will once again lower its BI Rate by 50 base points to 10.75 percent by 5 October.
The rate decrease will take place if the September inflation rate is still under control.
The sectoral shares that the investors will focus include banking, property, infrastructure, financing and automotive.
As for banking shares, investors will aim at PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, PT Bank Niaga Tbk and PT Lippo Bank Tbk.
BNI's share price has significantly risen by 40.53 percent in a week from Rp1,690 to Rp2,375 per share.
Bank Mandiri's share price has decreased by 2.11 percent from Rp2,375 to Rp2,325 per share.
However, during the last three months, the price of Bank Mandiri's shares has risen by 35.17 percent compared with to the price in late June this year of Rp1,720 per share.
Bank Niaga's share price has increased by 4.23 percent in a week from Rp710 to Rp740 per share.
Bank Lippo's share price has risen by 3.36 percent from Rp1,190 to Rp1,230 per share.
Alfiansyah, an analyst at PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, said that the increase in BNI's share price was triggered by a rumor that the bank will shortly settle its non-performing loans (NPLs)with debtors.
This could reduce BNI’s NPL ratio.
“An issue saying that the state-owned banks will join due to the single presence policy has also become the positive sentiment at the exchange,” he said.
R Fitri Murniawati, an analyst of PT BNI Securities, said that the increase in BNI shares was also triggered by the plan to divest the government's shares in the bank.
At the moment, the government controls more than 90 percent of BNI's shares.
“If say 20 percent of these were released, it will certainly boost the share price,” she said.
Alfiansyah has recommended that investors buy BNI shares when the price decreases.
“Nevertheless, there is still a great opportunity that the shares of Bank Mandiri, Niaga and Lippo Bank will increase,” he said.
Muchtar Wijaya (PDAT)